Chapter 1: The Cycle of Trust and Deception

You may have encountered the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." This phrase has increasingly resonated with the Bitcoin community over the years. To illustrate, let’s revisit 2019. Fresh off the dramatic end to the bull market in 2018, Bitcoin's legitimacy was still in question, and many feared that the market had met its demise. Unlike today, few were optimistic about a recovery.

As 2019 unfolded, however, the market began to bounce back. Bitcoin surged past the $10,000 mark, reigniting hope among investors. The rally didn’t stop there; it climbed above $13,000. This resurgence led many to declare a bull market was underway, and discussions about potential price targets of $50,000 or even $100,000 began to circulate. The painful memories of the previous year started to fade, conveniently coinciding with the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

Does this sound familiar?

This pattern has repeated itself in the present year. Just one year removed from a particularly brutal period for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, we are witnessing another recovery. Notable bullish developments, such as BlackRock's spot ETF application, propelled Bitcoin up to $31,000, rekindling excitement and speculation about its future. Many are asserting that Bitcoin is on the verge of another breakthrough, perhaps even crossing the $100,000 threshold.

Though these assertions may hold some truth, we saw a similar downturn in the summer before the next halving, which once again shook investor confidence.

Having experienced this scenario in 2019 might have seemed like a mere coincidence, but as it has now occurred twice, it begins to resemble a trend. Fortunately, in 2023, we have the advantage of historical perspective.

Back in 2019, Bitcoin was far less established, and while there was hope for recovery, it was based on scant historical evidence. Fast forward to 2023, and we have witnessed this narrative unfold multiple times: Bitcoin reaches astonishing heights, only to be dragged down by FUD or an explosive sell-off. While we still cannot predict with certainty whether recovery is guaranteed, the fact that Bitcoin continues to function and produce blocks enhances those odds with each passing day. Surviving each cycle also bolsters this confidence.

After Bitcoin's decline in 2019, many investors lost faith and exited their positions, unable to bear further pain. Ironically, they missed out on Bitcoin's subsequent rise to $69,000 in the following cycle.

Today, a similar scenario is unfolding. Investors were eager for the bull market to commence, buoyed by the BlackRock news and the upcoming halving, only to be met with disappointment as the market deflated.

Yet, we can anticipate how this narrative will unfold in the next cycle. Let’s not allow Bitcoin to deceive us again.

Have you ever felt misled by Bitcoin?

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Chapter 2: Revisiting the Past

In the video titled "Bitcoin Just Fooled Us ALL! [I'm Doing This FAST]," we explore the recurring themes of trust and deception in the cryptocurrency market.

The second video, "Day 0 Panel: Fool Me Once: How Crypto Can Learn From Past Bull Market Mistakes," offers insights into lessons learned from previous market cycles.