# Embracing Uncertainty: The Path to Growth and Understanding
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Chapter 1: The Nature of Uncertainty
Each week, I spot at least two unidentified flying objects (UFOs). If that seems unbelievable, you might be making an assumption. The term UFO refers to any flying object that cannot be identified with certainty. Is that flicker in the clouds an aircraft or a satellite? Was that movement a bird or perhaps a child playing nearby? Cultural interpretations of "UFO" may lead some to conclude that I am claiming to see alien spacecraft regularly. This misunderstanding arises from a tendency to rush toward a false sense of certainty, overlooking the ambiguity inherent in "unidentified." This inclination often directs us away from the truth.
Humans have a natural desire for certainty, as uncertainty often breeds anxiety. However, this discomfort can obscure the fact that uncertainty is also beneficial. It enhances our capacity for learning, igniting our curiosity and encouraging us to absorb new information and explore new avenues. Recognizing our ignorance is the essential first step in learning anything. Teaching someone who believes they already possess all the answers is a challenging task. This mindset contributes to the troubling reality of misinformation in today's world. To truly expand our knowledge, we must become comfortable with uncertainty and seek out valuable insights that lie beyond it.
Science and experience do not typically provide certainty; they foster confidence. While certainty resides in belief, confidence is rooted in knowledge, despite their superficial similarities. For example, a climate scientist does not hesitate to assert that human actions are influencing climate change. Their confidence is based on rigorous study and substantial evidence, with an error margin of less than one in a million. They may express confidence at a rate of 99.9999%. Countless inquiries have been posed and resolved, creating a collective understanding that informs their conclusions. Should they be questioned, they can delineate the line between what is confirmed and what is merely suspected. This boundary is where they thrive; they appreciate having solid answers, yet their careers revolve around asking additional questions.
This is the essence of the scientific method. As it broadens our understanding, it simultaneously unveils new questions. Confidence cultivates a comfort with uncertainty that, in turn, fuels further learning and confidence. For many years, medical professionals believed that stress caused ulcers. When Dr. Barry Marshall identified a bacterium as the true cause, he was initially ridiculed. His eventual self-experimentation and subsequent cure shifted the medical community's understanding from certainty to confidence.
A zealot, on the other hand, may be just as resolute in their beliefs, but their conviction lacks the foundation of inquiry and exploration. Their certainty stems from an inability to consider alternative perspectives, rendering any dissent unthinkable. While they may appear similar to confident individuals, they are fundamentally different. They reject uncertainty entirely, disregarding the possibility of error. Historically, those who are most violent often cling to the belief that they are always right, viewing challenges to their perspective as threats. Embracing the humility that accompanies uncertainty is vital for fostering compassion and understanding in our interactions.
Section 1.1: The Limits of Knowledge
We cannot engage in critical thinking about topics we know little about. Given the vast array of specialized fields, navigating uncertainty is inevitable. This is why we rely on experts such as neurosurgeons, engineers, and NASA scientists. None of us can master every domain, but we can turn to those who have the necessary knowledge. For instance, Cathy can evaluate my unusual medical symptoms, Eric can inform me about the legal aspects of my business idea, and Wolfgang can assess whether my broken laptop is salvageable. Many inquiries have answers, and by recognizing my uncertainty—such as not knowing if a mole on my back is harmless or indicative of skin cancer—I can seek the right expert who can provide confident answers. This curated knowledge allows us to access the information we need.
However, some questions remain indeterminate, eluding confident answers. For example, does a distant planet that appears similar to Earth harbor a breathable atmosphere? A generation ago, we lacked the telescopes to even confirm the planet's existence. Perhaps, in the future, we will discover methods to learn more about its atmosphere without needing to collect a physical sample. Until that time, these questions remain unresolved.
Section 1.2: The Unanswerable Questions
Some inquiries simply lack answers. What awaits us after death? Culturally, there are narratives around this; many events occur posthumously, but we play no role in them, except in how our actions affect those who remain. For some, the idea of an afterlife provides comfort in the face of mortality. While many claim to know with certainty what happens after death, some are even willing to resort to violence against those with opposing beliefs. Personally, I find value in the uncertainty of life after death; it encourages me to make my time here meaningful. The unpredictability of my remaining days enhances their significance, motivating me to improve the world during my lifetime.
Confidence is derived from knowledge supported by evidence and experience, while certainty arises from belief. Embrace uncertainty as an essential part of life, a profound teacher that fosters humility and open-mindedness. Avoid clinging to certainty, which is a misguided attempt to impose one’s will on reality by denying the possibility of new evidence or refusing to acknowledge mistakes. Such assumptions can be detrimental. History has shown us that common sense can lead to flawed conclusions, like the belief that the Earth is flat. When you encounter an unidentified flying object, accept that you may never know what it is. In that ambiguous space might lie a captivating story, a creative idea, or another unexpected revelation. Rushing to conclusions can close off valuable opportunities.
You don’t need to be right all the time; what truly matters is being a decent human being. Granting yourself grace for not having all the answers allows for greater forgiveness of others and fosters collective learning and peaceful coexistence.
Chapter 2: Learning from Uncertainty
In this enlightening talk, Bishop T.D. Jakes discusses how embracing uncertainty can lead to personal growth and resilience.
Manvel Hovhannisyan shares insights on the transformative power of uncertainty, emphasizing its role in fostering innovation and creativity.