Chapter 1: Progress in the Environmental Movement

Take heart: the environmental movement has already made significant strides. What's ahead? The skepticism from both environmental advocates and the public stems from the immense footprint of human activity, akin to a massive ship. We are currently in reverse gear toward sustainability; however, the sheer momentum of our past actions means that only statistics and trajectories tell the real story.

Ignoring the overwhelmingly positive direction we are heading in is not only misleading but also dangerous, similar to the previous denial exhibited by non-environmentalists. A lack of belief in our achievements could diminish public support for ongoing efforts. It's crucial to recognize that we are now on a solidly positive trajectory.

Full Reverse: The Path to Sustainability

I am a strong advocate for the extreme conservation of our planet's ecosystems, waterways, landscapes, and atmosphere. However, I believe this can be achieved through green technologies rather than austerity measures.

The encouraging news is that the environmental movement has indeed achieved victory—without a doubt. Even at our current levels of technology adoption, we are on track to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040, with pollution and deforestation reduced by five to ten times by around 2035. By 2030, AI-driven automation will be fully operational, greatly improving recycling rates and aiding in the cleanup of past environmental mistakes.

With a bit more time, we will actually witness a decrease in CO2 concentrations.

How It Works: The Mechanics of Change

The process is straightforward:

1. The environmental movement and academia have successfully educated the public about climate change and pollution (albeit with some exaggeration regarding the extent, but not the concept).
2. This awareness gradually influenced regulatory bodies, leading to the establishment of environmentally-friendly laws and targets.
3. In response, innovators seized the opportunity to develop green technologies.
4. Early adopters invested, despite the higher costs of green technology, which were two to ten times greater.
5. This early investment drove prices down over time, resulting in increased adoption rates.
6. Costs fell further, as predicted by ‘Wright's Law’ (Tony Seba’s ReThinkX provides insightful analysis on this).
7. Presently, green technologies (such as renewable energy and electric vehicles) are already at price parity or even cheaper than their polluting counterparts, and prices continue to decline. Within a decade, we could see energy costs that are three to four times lower than today.

Adoption targets are being surpassed, and international agreements and incentives may soon become irrelevant for many nations.

The Economics of Transitioning to Carbon Neutrality

Now, the shift towards carbon neutrality is largely driven by economics.

Of course, this does not mean we should become complacent. Green technology adoption is skyrocketing, now being two to three times cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. You need to trust the numbers. By around 2030, a significant portion of the world will be powered by over 50-60% renewable energy. Countries such as Australia, the UK, China, and several European nations are projected to operate on at least 80% renewable energy.

The United States is making significant progress this year with large-scale battery-backed solar and wind farms. Even India is moving towards greener solutions. Within a decade, half of all vehicles on the road will be electric, with sales reaching approximately 90% EVs, setting the stage for nearly total electric vehicle adoption by around 2040.

The growth of these technologies is currently at an astounding rate of 40% annually.

Step Aerobics Made Easy! Full Reverse Turn step Tutorial for beginners! - This tutorial makes step aerobics accessible for beginners, demonstrating the full reverse turn step effectively.

11 Full Reverse Turn - This video explores the full reverse turn in depth, showcasing techniques and tips for mastering this important step in aerobics.

Climate Change and its Solutions

We will see CO2 concentrations begin a significant decline by the late 2020s. Although it may take a century or two to return to pre-industrial levels, advances in carbon capture technology are likely to expedite this process.

Regardless, we are on track to avoid, or just barely surpass, a 2°C increase in global temperatures. Independent forecasts from Tony Seba’s ReThinkX and Tesla suggest we will have access to abundant, inexpensive green energy to facilitate carbon capture and clean up legacy pollution.

This is based solely on solar, wind, and battery technology. If we incorporate safe nuclear fusion or space-based solar energy, the predictions become even more optimistic.

All of my optimism assumes that we will not face global wars, authoritarian regimes, asteroid strikes, or disastrous AI singularities. If we can avoid these scenarios, the rescue of our planet through green technology is not just possible, it is inevitable because it is more cost-effective.

The right thing to do is only a secondary motivation; environmentalism has brought us to the point where green technology is now the cheaper option, driving the shift.

Appendix 1: Solar and EV Adoption Trends

Solar adoption surged 30% in 2021 and is projected to reach 60% in 2023, based on sales data from China.

Currently, 18% of new cars sold are electric vehicles. The adoption of EVs, as well as solar and wind energy farms, is rapidly increasing, with rooftop solar being a small component of this growth.

Appendix 2: Overcoming Skepticism in Green Technology

We can undoubtedly tackle climate change within the next 15-20 years, assuming no global conflicts, and it will be more economical than maintaining fossil fuel power plants.

Yet, there is skepticism towards scientists and engineers because many people do not grasp the dynamics of technology adoption. The rapid rate of past technology adoptions once they became cheaper and more efficient is illustrated in the accompanying chart.

Look how swiftly new technologies gain acceptance and become mainstream.