A Year in Space: Highlights and Future Prospects for 2021
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Chapter 1: Reflections on Space Exploration
In the realm of space exploration, promises often seem to come up short. Numerous ambitious entrepreneurs have boasted about being just years away from mining asteroids or setting foot on Mars. Meanwhile, government agencies and space organizations frequently invest billions into rocket programs that rarely see launch or lunar missions that remain unrealized.
Yearly assessments of our advancements in space can become monotonous. NASA's Space Launch System (SLS), for example, has been anticipated for its inaugural launch since 2016, while the James Webb Space Telescope faced so many delays it became a subject of humor. This trend can be attributed to the inherent challenges of space exploration, where innovative projects often exceed budgets and timelines, compounded by bureaucratic inefficiencies and overly ambitious goals.
However, this year marked a shift in the landscape. Key milestones—ranging from the advent of genuine space tourism to the successful launch of the James Webb—have finally been achieved. A broader transformation is underway within the space sector, with a surge of new rockets emerging to facilitate more accessible and cost-effective access to space. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China’s ascent and NASA's increasing collaboration with commercial partners.
This week, we will reflect on the significant events of the past year, highlighting both accomplishments and setbacks in the fields of space and physics.
As 2023 comes to an end, we reflect on the year's pivotal moments in space exploration and the advancements made in technology.
Section 1.1: Space Tourism's Breakthrough
Thirteen years ago, Richard Branson confidently asserted he would have tourists flying to space within a mere eighteen months. He envisioned space hotels and lunar excursions, claiming thousands would achieve orbit by 2021. Whether this was merely a fundraising tactic or an overestimation remains to be seen, as Branson's timeline was delayed by over a decade.
The consistent failure to meet these projections made space tourism resemble the elusive promise of nuclear fusion—a utopia perpetually just out of reach. Yet, as time progressed, the concept gained traction and moved closer to reality. Competition emerged, particularly from Blue Origin, which successfully launched a spacecraft in 2015, igniting a competitive spirit.
It wasn't until last summer that space tourism became a tangible reality, with two launches occurring within weeks of each other, each carrying crews to the edge of space. The legitimacy of these individuals as astronauts is debatable since they spent only a few seconds in space during brief missions.
Regardless, space tourism appears poised to remain a fixture, with Blue Origin completing three separate missions with tourists and more planned for the upcoming year.
Subsection 1.1.1: NASA's Achievements
In addition to advancements in tourism, NASA experienced a fruitful year. In February, they landed the Perseverance rover on Mars—the most sophisticated machine ever to explore another planet—promising to unveil much about the Red Planet's ancient history. Scientists have already gleaned insights into Jezero Crater, its landing site, revealing a once water-rich landscape.
Perseverance also brought along a small helicopter named Ingenuity, which made history by becoming the first aircraft to fly on another planet. Originally intended as a proof-of-concept, Ingenuity has impressively completed eighteen flights across the Martian terrain.
NASA's crowning achievement, however, was the flawless launch of the James Webb Space Telescope on Christmas Day. After years of development and substantial funding, the telescope's deployment has proceeded smoothly, with projections suggesting it may operate for several years beyond its original ten-year lifespan.
Section 1.2: Moon Missions and Delays
Conversely, NASA's plans for returning to the Moon have not been as triumphant. While the program has endured a presidential transition, extending its timeline, the target for landing astronauts has now been pushed back to at least 2026, a significant delay from the initially proposed 2024.
Chapter 2: China's Ascendancy in Space
A discussion on how China has made significant strides in space exploration, launching its own space station and landing on Mars.
Despite America maintaining its status as the leading space power, China has rapidly progressed in its space capabilities. This year, the country achieved two significant milestones: landing a rover on Mars and launching a space station into orbit.
China's Mars rover, Zhurong, successfully reached the planet's surface in early May—an accomplishment that should not be underestimated, as only Russia and America have previously achieved a Mars landing. While Zhurong is smaller than Perseverance, the ability to successfully land on another planet is a notable technical feat.
The Tiangong space station further exemplifies China's engineering advancements. Although it is smaller than the International Space Station (ISS), it accommodates a crew of astronauts and could become a leading orbital facility if the ISS is decommissioned by the end of the decade.
SpaceX: A Transformative Force
No examination of the current space industry would be complete without acknowledging SpaceX's significant contributions. Elon Musk's company has consistently pushed boundaries this year, achieving milestones that even superpowers would find difficult to surpass: developing a massive new rocket, sending a crew of four tourists into Earth orbit, and launching thousands of satellites to dominate the orbital landscape.
However, this rapid expansion has not been without controversy. The Starlink project, aimed at providing global high-speed internet, now comprises nearly two thousand satellites, making SpaceX the owner of over a third of all active satellites in orbit. While this is an impressive achievement, it raises concerns among astronomers regarding the potential for light interference during night sky observations. Despite efforts by SpaceX to mitigate these issues, they remain a point of contention, prompting questions about the future of ground-based astronomy.
Moreover, fellow satellite operators express worries about the increasing risk of space debris, as many Starlink satellites occupy similar orbits, leading to frequent crossing paths and heightened collision risks, a situation exacerbated by a reckless anti-satellite test conducted by Russia in November.
Searching for New Physics
This newsletter also delves into developments beyond space exploration, highlighting a year filled with intriguing—if not groundbreaking—advancements in physics. A long-standing discord between two fundamental theories, Einstein's relativity and quantum mechanics, continues to present challenges.
To date, no experiment has definitively disproven either theory, and no experimental data has hinted at a unifying framework. This leaves physicists grappling with theoretical models lacking substantial real-world validation.
However, this year saw two experiments hinting at potential cracks in our understanding. One, conducted in America, indicated anomalies in the magnetism of muons, while another at the Large Hadron Collider suggested unexpected behavior among quarks.
Though the evidence remains inconclusive, should these results hold up under further scrutiny in the months ahead, physicists may finally have the opportunity to explore the fundamental laws of nature at a deeper level—news that would be welcomed after years of stagnation.
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